TRUMP HARRIS DEBATE
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Kamala Harris traded barbs in a heated debate Tuesday, clashing over everything from immigration to the economy.
But after the highly anticipated event, which came at a time when Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck in national polls, investors were left with few details on how each candidate would approach key issues such as tariffs, taxes and the regulations.
On the campaign trail, Trump pledged to cut corporate taxes and take a tougher stance on tariffs. Harris, by contrast, has vowed to raise corporate taxes. Analysts have predicted that while Trump’s plan could help boost corporate profits, it could also fuel inflation. But they have also noted that Harris’ proposal, on the other hand, could hurt corporate returns.
On the debate stage, Harris took aim at Trump’s policy of imposing high tariffs on foreign goods, arguing that it would effectively be a tax on the middle class. Trump defended the plan, saying it would not lead to higher prices for Americans, and attacked Harris for overseeing a period of high inflation during the Biden administration.
The Chinese yuan, which had been weakened by trade tensions between Washington and Beijing during Trump’s previous tenure in the White House, strengthened against the dollar.
The odds favored Harris immediately after the debate, with the incumbent vice president’s chances of winning the vote rising to 56 percent from 53 percent before the event, according to data from online prediction market PredictIt cited by Reuters. Trump’s counterparts fell to 48% from 52%.
Here’s a look at reactions from various analysts:
TD Cowen
“This was not […] a discussion about the economy. We haven’t had meaningful discussions about key economic issues, such as whether the White House should play a role in setting interest rates or how tariffs might affect inflation and economic growth.”
BTIG
BTIG analysts said in a note to clients that Harris “won the night” and could have boosted her appeal to undecided voters, but noted that the debate “will do nothing to shift partisans from either sides of the ideological spectrum”.
Wolfe Research
“We expected politics to play a role in this debate in the sense that both candidates had to talk about their agenda to achieve their goals, but not in the sense that they would get into the weeds or announce new proposals. To be sure, they heavily emphasized the proposals already unfolding, though investors should note Trump’s continued emphasis on tariffs […] – he strongly refused to budge from a 20% global tariff early in the debate ».
Raymond James
“In recent polls, undecided voters say they want to know more about Harris and her policies before they support her. While we expect most polls, pundits and betting markets to declare Harris the winner, the continued lack of concrete political details may not meet the information threshold and we continue to expect a close election.”
Citi
“There were no specific policy details, although the issue of tariffs has come back to the fore as Trump continues to make it a key part of his platform. Interestingly, despite the fact that Harris discussed potentially expansionary fiscal policies, the odds actually moved lower as the debate progressed and the odds of buying Harris bets increased. We expect this is a result of investors recognizing that a Harris victory is highly unlikely to have a Democratic Senate, and therefore these policies are unlikely to be implemented even if she wins the White House.”
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Written by D Fernando
