With just weeks to go until the all-important U.S. presidential election on November 5, the battle between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is all but even in key swing states, a new Wall Street Journal poll shows.
Democratic candidate Harris has a narrow lead in the states of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia on ballots that include independent and third-party candidates, the poll found. Trump, Harris’ Republican rival, has a narrow lead in Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
But neither White House contender has a lead larger than the poll’s margin of error in those swing states, the Wall Street Journal said on Friday. The poll, as well as other recent similar polls, all suggest the race remains very close.
HSBC analysts are now predicting four possible outcomes in the election, which includes not only the presidential race but also other races that will determine the political makeup of the U.S. Congress.
In the first scenario, former President Trump wins a second term and his Republican Party gains control of the House and Senate. Another possibility that HSBC analysts foresee is a Trump victory, but without Republicans securing a clear victory in Congress.
For Harris, the scenarios are similar, analysts said. The current vice president could win the vote while Democrats take control of Congress, or she could emerge victorious and preside over a divided legislature.
For markets, a clear Republican victory in Congress would likely lead bond traders to expect a more hawkish interest rate outlook from the Federal Reserve, while a legislature under Democratic control could cause further bullish steepening of the yield curve, HSBC analysts said.
“Republican policies could support further outperformance in U.S. equities; an escalation in trade tensions could weigh on the rest of the world. A clear Democratic victory could mean corporate tax hikes and tough antitrust laws, a potential drag on U.S. equities,” the analysts added.
Crucially, they noted that neither Trump nor Harris are likely to be able to pass much legislation if Congress is split between Republicans and Democrats. But some policy areas could still be affected, they said.
“Policies that do not require new laws could potentially come into effect more quickly (some possible areas include tariffs, immigration and regulation) and in turn could have an impact on growth, inflation and interest rates as early as 2025,” the HSBC analysts said in a note to clients this week.
“For policy areas that require new laws (taxes and other areas of fiscal policy), it will likely take some time for Congress to debate and negotiate changes, regardless of the election outcome.”
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Reference;
Kanowsky, S. (2024) These four US election scenarios are ‘very much on the table’, according to HSBC By Investing.com, Investing.com. Investing.com. Available at: https://www.investing.com/news/politics/these-four-us-election-scenarios-are-very-much-on-the-table-according-to-hsbc-3660243 (Accessed: 12 October 2024).
