Countries could use UN meetings in New York next week to resolve major differences over boosting the global annual climate finance target, but uncertainty over the US election could jeopardize progress ahead of the next UN climate summit in November.
Negotiators told Reuters that countries were reluctant to decide their positions before they knew who might win the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential vote and set climate policy for the world’s biggest economy — and biggest polluter — for years to come. four years.
But by waiting until November for that response, countries could jeopardize the chance of reaching a new deal before the world’s current pledge of $100 billion in funding expires at the end of this year, negotiators and observers warned.
“The election is in the reckoning” of global climate talks, said economic negotiator Mihai Robertson of the Alliance of Small Island States.
The administrations are weighing different scenarios for possible victories by Vice President Kamala Harris, who along with President Joe Biden helped pass the largest domestic climate spending bill in US history, or former President Donald Trump, a climate denier which wants to boost fossil fuels. They are also considering a third scenario with the US hanging on for months due to an uncertain or delayed election result.
“It’s an unspoken understanding that the uncertainty of the US election affects how countries are positioned,” Robertson said. While some rich countries have said they will contribute more money – they are not saying how much more and instead want to “wait and see which way the US moves”.
WICKED TARGET
The UN General Assembly this week marks the last gathering of all countries before the start of the COP29 climate summit on November 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan – less than a week after the US vote.
But agreeing on a new target, as well as whether to expand the donor base, is proving difficult. A target that is too high could mean that countries will again fail to meet the full amount, which will likely sow tension and mistrust among developing countries that rely on these funds.
Too low a target would leave too many vulnerable and underserved as global warming continues to escalate. UN climate chief Simon Steele has estimated that annual needs would need to be in the trillions to adequately help poorer countries switch to clean energy and prepare for the conditions of a warmer world.
Failure to adopt a new target before early 2025 could jeopardize future climate negotiations, a senior official of Azerbaijan’s COP29 presidency has warned.
Azerbaijan does not even want to consider failure, the COP29 official told Reuters.
DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS
Regardless of who wins the US vote, this year’s US climate negotiators are already limited in what they can commit to, although a Harris presidency would ensure greater continuity.
“Negotiators are working for the current administration, not a future one,” noted Jonathan Pershing, a former US envoy who helped lead the country’s talks at the 2015 Paris climate summit.
As a presidential candidate, Harris has said she supports Biden’s negotiating positions on climate, including a pledge at last year’s COP28 in Dubai to contribute $3 billion to the global Green Climate Fund.
Neither Biden nor Harris proposed a new funding target, but US negotiators have said fast-growing economies such as China or the oil-producing Gulf states should contribute funds. In the past, China and some Gulf states have said they should be exempted as developing nations.
Trump, on the other hand, has vowed to withdraw again from the Paris Agreement, as well as the broader UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which guides global climate efforts and negotiations among the 198 its member states. Only a handful of countries have opted out of the UNFCCC, including Iran, Libya and Yemen.
SURPRISE OF MARRAKESH
With US elections and UN climate summits both falling in November, this year’s election uncertainty is hardly unique.
The disputed 2004 US election coincided with a climate summit that failed to reach an agreement that year, pushing their talks to a special session held five months later in Bonn, Germany.
The next major twist came just a year after the historic Paris accord was signed, when US climate negotiators were stunned at the UN summit in Marrakesh by Trump’s defeat of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the presidency.
“The US delegation there was disbanded, and the negotiators were left hanging,” said Alden Meyer, a senior fellow at climate think tank E3G, who has attended every COP.
But this year is different. There is new urgency in the climate fight, negotiators said, as rising global temperatures are already causing climate disasters and extremes.
Climate negotiators are also better prepared for unexpected outcomes, said Bezos Earth Fund director of sustainable finance Paul Bodnar, who previously served as U.S. negotiator under former President Barack Obama.
“The difference between now and 2016 is that 2016 was a big surprise,” he said. After the Trump administration pulled out of the global climate effort, Bodnar created a coalition of US states and cities stepping up to maintain a strong US presence in global climate talks.
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Reference;
Boughedda, S.
Boughedda, S. (2024) OPEC+ production cut extension positive for oil prices, Wells Fargo says By Investing.com, Investing.com. Investing.com. Available at: https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/opec-production-cut-extension-positive-for-oil-prices-wells-fargo-says-3624165 (Accessed: 21 September 2024).
