The upcoming US presidential election is set to affect the health care sector, with different implications depending on the outcome, according to analysts at Piper Sandler.
The firm believes comprehensive health care reform is unlikely regardless of who wins the White House, as both major parties show little appetite for sweeping changes.
Analysts at Piper Sandler said a Republican victory could see the ACA’s enhanced subsidies, which went into effect in 2021 and rolled over to the IRA, partially or completely reversed.
That could lead to fewer insured people and increased bad debt issues for hospitals, Piper Sandler said.
Additionally, there could be “moderate cuts to Medicaid” through the introduction of work requirements.
The GOP is also expected to maintain a friendlier health care regulatory environment, which may lead to a rollback of Biden’s rule on lab tests and a rollback of Trump’s rule on breakthrough devices.
Instead, a Democratic sweep could lead to Medicare Advantage (MA) cuts, which are more likely under Harris. While MA plans have broad support, regulatory and legislative risks to the plans’ reimbursement rates could increase under a Democratic administration, Piper Sandler said.
“Medicare Advantage cuts more likely with Harris in the White House,” said Piper Sandler.
The pharmaceutical industry is also at risk if Democrats gain control, potentially subjecting more drugs to price controls and expanding private sector caps on out-of-pocket costs.
“Although a Democratic sweep is unlikely, if that happens, Democrats will likely extend price controls to the IRA,” they report.
Instead, Trump “Trump, but will not overturn existing IRA drug pricing provisions,” the company adds.
While no major health care reforms are expected, Piper Sandler believes some bipartisan health care changes could still become law, including during a possible lame-duck session in December.
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Reference;
Boughedda, S. (2024) US presidential election implications for health care stocks and sector By Investing.com, Investing.com. Investing.com. Available at: https://www.investing.com/news/politics/us-presidential-election-implications-for-health-care-stocks-and-sector-3658459 (Accessed: 13 October 2024).