A Trump victory in the 2024 US presidential election could jeopardize the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), according to a Jefferies analysis.
The report pointed to concerns about potential reversals in support for renewable energy if Trump is returned to office, particularly as Republicans are expected to take control of the Senate.
“The White House remains ambivalent, but a narrow Republican victory in the Senate looks likely,” Jefferies said.
In this scenario, former President Trump could attempt to overturn many of the provisions of the IRA, including incentives for renewable energy projects such as solar and wind. However, the analysis pointed out that the divided nature of Congress will present significant legislative challenges to such efforts.
“A closely divided House could make it difficult for Trump to push through policy changes,” Jefferies said. Instead, a Harris victory would likely see the continuation, and possibly expansion, of IRA policies, although the Republican-controlled Senate would act as a check on more ambitious proposals.
“Harris could rely on the current IRA framework, but the composition of the Senate would slow or reverse any major initiatives,” the report said. However, the lack of a detailed political agenda from either candidate leaves much of the IRA’s future uncertain.
Jefferies also highlighted the growing partisan divide on renewable energy, noting that while some red states will benefit from the IRA provisions, opposition from Republican lawmakers remains steadfast. “Nuclear power is one area where bipartisan support may be strong, but resistance to solar and wind incentives remains,” the report notes.
The outcome of the 2024 election will be critical in determining the direction of US energy policy, with potential implications for both domestic energy markets and international relations, particularly regarding China’s involvement in IRA subsidies. And thats how the a Trump Victory affects the IRA policies.
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Written by D Fernando
